MeritValue

NovoCure Ltd

NVCRdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NovoCure Ltd earns about -14% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$535M1$537.8M2$509.3M3$605.2M3$655.4M3
Net income−$58.4M4−$92.5M5−$207M6−$168.6M6−$136.2M6
Operating cash flow$82.8M7$30.8M8−$73.3M9−$26.4M9−$49M9
Capital expenditure$24.2M10$21.4M11$27.1M12$42.9M12$26.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$58.6M7$9.43M8−$100.4M9−$69.2M9−$75.7M9
Total debt$1.12B13$1.13B14$1.14B15$97.3M16$195M16
Cash & equivalents$208.8M17$115.3M18$240.8M19$163.8M19$93.5M19
Diluted shares103.4M104.7M106.4M107.8M111.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$30.54
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$12.22
Free cash flow it threw off
−$6.79
Debt you’d be carrying
$17.5

10 shares is a claim on $30.54 of net worth that earned you −$12.22 and generated −$6.79 of cash last year, against $17.5 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-14% avg · 5y
FY21 -3%FY22 -4%FY23 -12%FY24 -32%FY25 -20%

It earned an average -14% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+8% shares · 5y

Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 83% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001645113-24-000006 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001645113-25-000002 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001645113-26-000017 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001645113-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001645113-25-000002 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001645113-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001645113-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001645113-25-000002 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001645113-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001645113-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001645113-25-000002 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001645113-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001645113-23-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001645113-24-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001645113-25-000002 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001645113-26-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001645113-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001645113-25-000002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001645113-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)