MeritValue

NOVAVAX INC

NVAXdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.15B1$1.98B2$983.7M3$682.2M3$1.12B3
Net income−$1.74B4−$657.9M5−$545.1M6−$187.5M6$440.3M6
Operating cash flow$322.9M7−$415.9M8−$714M9−$87.3M9−$244.6M9
Capital expenditure$57.5M10$89.1M11$53.8M12$13.1M12$5.56M12
Free cash flow (derived)$265.5M7−$505M8−$767.7M9−$100.3M9−$250.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.52B13$1.34B14$568.5M15$530.2M15$240.6M15
Diluted shares74.4M78.2M100.8M152.2M173.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$7.38
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$25.44
Free cash flow it threw off
−$14.45
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$7.38 of net worth that earned you $25.44 and generated −$14.45 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+133% shares · 5y

Share count is up 133% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001000694-24-000007 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000694-25-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001000694-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001000694-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000694-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001000694-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001000694-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000694-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001000694-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001000694-22-000004 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000694-25-000004 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001000694-26-000007 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001000694-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000694-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001000694-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)