Nuvalent, Inc.

NUVLdata completeness 63%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Nuvalent, Inc. earns about -28% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 234% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	—	—	—	—	—
Net income	−$46.3M¹	−$81.9M²	−$126.2M³	−$260.8M³	−$425.4M³
Operating cash flow	−$40M⁴	−$65M⁵	−$99.7M⁶	−$185.1M⁶	−$275.2M⁶
Capital expenditure	—	—	—	—	—
Free cash flow (derived)	—	—	—	—	—
Total debt	—	—	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$68.5M⁷	$241.8M⁸	$335.4M⁹	$145.7M¹⁰	$261.7M¹⁰
Diluted shares	21.8M	49.7M	58.2M	66.4M	72.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$171.74

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$58.52

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $171.74 of net worth that earned you −$58.52 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on invested capital

-28% avg · 5y

FY21 —FY22 -29%FY23 -27%FY24 -22%FY25 -34%

It earned an average -28% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+234% shares · 5y

Share count is up 234% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008284 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028328 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073317 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008284 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028328 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073317 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008284 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-020607 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028328 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-073317 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)