MeritValue

Nuvation Bio Inc.

NUVBdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Nuvation Bio Inc. earns about -45% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 73% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue——$01$7.87M2$62.9M2
Net income−$86.8M3−$104.2M4−$75.8M5−$567.9M6−$204.6M6
Operating cash flow−$68.2M7−$96.1M8−$68M9−$130.4M10−$173.4M10
Capital expenditure———$011$8M11
Free cash flow (derived)———−$130.4M10−$181.4M10
Total debt——$012$6.28M13$52.9M14
Cash & equivalents$132.4M15$101.1M16$42.6M17$35.7M18$164.1M18
Diluted shares197,887216,721218,880268,772341,541

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8,951.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5,991.29
Free cash flow it threw off
−$5,312.01
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,549.8

10 shares is a claim on $8,951.08 of net worth that earned you −$5,991.29 and generated −$5,312.01 of cash last year, against $1,549.8 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-45% avg · 5y
FY21 -11%FY22 -15%FY23 -11%FY24 -103%FY25 -83%

It earned an average -45% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+73% shares · 5y

Share count is up 73% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034903 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085584 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008180 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023247 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034903 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085584 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008180 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023247 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034903 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085584 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085584 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034903 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085584 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085584 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008180 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-023247 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034903 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-085584 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)