Nutex Health Inc.

NUTXdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Nutex Health Inc. earns about -18% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 99% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $61.95 and $79.91 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$331.5M1$219.3M2$247.6M3$479.9M3$875.3M3
Net income$132.6M4−$424.8M5−$45.8M6$52.1M6$70.8M6
Operating cash flow$173.4M7$50.6M8$1.26M9$23.2M9$248.1M9
Capital expenditure$36.9M10$14.6M11$9.5M12$2.3M12$2.53M12
Free cash flow (derived)$136.5M7$36M8−$8.24M9$20.8M9$245.6M9
Total debt$89M13$35.6M14$37.1M15$36.9M16$42.5M16
Cash & equivalents$36.1M17$34.3M18$22M18$40.6M18$185.6M18
Diluted shares592.8M4.2M4.4M5.5M6.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$487.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$104.78
Free cash flow it threw off
$363.52
Debt you’d be carrying
$62.92

10 shares is a claim on $487.63 of net worth that earned you $104.78 and generated $363.52 of cash last year, against $62.92 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-18% avg · 5y
FY21 104%FY22 -331%FY23 -33%FY24 74%FY25 97%

It earned about -18% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−99% shares · 5y

Share count is down 99% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 52% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $61.95 and $79.91 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$61.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$20.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$65.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$20.8M
Earnings Power Value
$79.91
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$52.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$107.23
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $65.27
The three cases
Bear0.0%$65.27
Base0.0%$65.27
Bull5.0%$75.94

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004287 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-052895 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015168 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004287 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-052895 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015168 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004287 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-052895 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015168 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002713 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-052895 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015168 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002713 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004287 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-052895 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015168 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002713 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015168 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)