MeritValue

NU SKIN ENTERPRISES, INC.

NUSdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NU SKIN ENTERPRISES, INC. earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.09 and $21.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.7B1$2.23B2$1.97B3$1.73B3$1.49B3
Net income$147.3M4$104.8M5$8.6M6−$146.6M6$160.2M6
Operating cash flow$141.6M7$108.1M8$118.6M9$111.7M9$80.3M9
Capital expenditure$68.6M10$59.1M11$58.5M12$41.6M12$34.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$73M7$49M8$60.1M9$70.2M9$46M9
Total debt$376.3M13$402.5M14$503M15$393.6M16$224.2M16
Cash & equivalents$339.6M17$264.7M18$256.1M19$186.9M20$238.6M20
Diluted shares51.4M50.5M49.9M49.7M50.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$160.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$31.85
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.15
Debt you’d be carrying
$44.57

10 shares is a claim on $160.08 of net worth that earned you $31.85 and generated $9.15 of cash last year, against $44.57 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 10%FY23 2%FY24 -16%FY25 20%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 40% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.09 and $21.59 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$16.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$60.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$17.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$60.1M
Earnings Power Value
$21.59
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$104.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.84
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $17.37
The three cases
Bear0.0%$17.37
Base0.0%$17.37
Bull5.0%$21.51

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-008111 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-004907 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-005130 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-008111 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-004907 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-005130 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-008111 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-004907 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-005130 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-008111 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-004907 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-005130 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-007348 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-008111 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-004907 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-005130 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-007348 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-008111 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-004907 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-005130 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)