MeritValue

NUCOR CORP

NUEdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NUCOR CORP earns about 35% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 21% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $55.07 and $202.99 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$36.5B1$41.5B2$34.7B3$30.7B3$32.5B3
Net income$6.83B4$7.61B5$4.53B6$2.03B6$1.74B6
Operating cash flow$6.23B7$10.1B8$7.11B9$3.98B9$3.23B9
Capital expenditure$1.62B10$1.95B11$2.21B12$3.17B12$3.42B12
Free cash flow (derived)$4.61B7$8.12B8$4.9B9$806M9−$188M9
Total debt$708.7M13$59.1M14$179M15$1.25B16$188M16
Cash & equivalents$2.36B17$4.28B18$6.38B19$3.56B20$2.26B20
Diluted shares293.4M263.2M250.4M238.5M231.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$906.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$75.5
Free cash flow it threw off
−$8.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$8.14

10 shares is a claim on $906.32 of net worth that earned you $75.5 and generated −$8.14 of cash last year, against $8.14 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
35% avg · 5y
FY21 59%FY22 58%FY23 35%FY24 14%FY25 12%

It earned about 35% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−21% shares · 5y

Share count is down 21% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 73% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $55.07 and $202.99 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$55.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$806M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$58.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$806M
Earnings Power Value
$202.99
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.53B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$123.83
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $58.82
The three cases
Bear0.0%$58.82
Base0.0%$58.82
Bull5.0%$70.89

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021195 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028427 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071575 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021195 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028427 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071575 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021195 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028427 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071575 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021195 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028427 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071575 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002793 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021195 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028427 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071575 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002793 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021195 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028427 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071575 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)