MeritValue

Nu Holdings Ltd.

NUdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Nu Holdings Ltd. earns about 268% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 199% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$737.1M1$1.7B2$4.79B3$8.03B3$11.5B3
Net income−$171.5M4−$165M5−$364.6M6$1.03B6$1.97B6
Operating cash flow$974.5M7−$2.92B8$755.6M9$1.27B9$2.4B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$97.5M10$147.2M11$585.6M12$1.14B13$1.73B13
Cash & equivalents$2.34B14$2.71B15$4.17B15$5.92B15$9.19B15
Diluted shares—1.60B4.68B4.74B4.79B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$15.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.12
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.61

10 shares is a claim on $15.96 of net worth that earned you $4.12 last year, against $3.61 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
268% avg · 5y
FY20 —FY21 -7%FY22 -19%FY23 64%FY24 1033%

It earned an average 268% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+199% shares · 5y

Share count is up 199% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 1676% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$3.81
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001292814-23-001671 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001464 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001517 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001292814-23-001671 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001464 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001517 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001292814-23-001671 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001464 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001517 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001292814-22-001705 (Borrowings)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-23-001671 (Borrowings)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001464 (Borrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001517 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001464 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001517 (CashAndCashEquivalents)