MeritValue

NORTHERN TRUST CORP

NTRSdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NORTHERN TRUST CORP earns about 43% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $83.3 and $475.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.36B1$4.43B2$4.36B3$4.73B3$5.02B3
Net income$1.55B4$1.34B5$1.11B6$2.03B6$1.74B6
Operating cash flow$1.36B7$2.39B8$2.63B9−$486M9$5.53B9
Capital expenditure$95.5M10$128.6M11$116.5M12$101.5M12$74M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.26B7$2.26B8$2.51B9−$587.5M9$5.46B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$3.06B13$4.65B14$4.79B14$4.68B14$5.87B14
Diluted shares208.9M208.9M207.6M201.9M192.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$674.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$90.35
Free cash flow it threw off
$283.98
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $674.03 of net worth that earned you $90.35 and generated $283.98 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
43% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 32%FY23 72%FY24 46%FY25 50%

It earned about 43% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $83.3 and $475.06 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$475.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.5%
  • fcfBase$2.51B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$347.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.5%
  • fcfBase$2.51B
Earnings Power Value
$83.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.55B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$115.13
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $347.23
The three cases
Bear0.0%$217.03
Base12.5%$347.23
Bull17.5%$417.06

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000073124-24-000073 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000073124-25-000105 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000073124-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000073124-24-000073 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000073124-25-000105 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000073124-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000073124-24-000073 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000073124-25-000105 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000073124-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000073124-24-000073 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000073124-25-000105 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000073124-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000073124-25-000105 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000073124-26-000016 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)