MeritValue

Natera, Inc.

NTRAdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Natera, Inc. earns about -50% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 51% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.27 and $17.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$625.5M1$820.2M2$1.08B3$1.7B3$2.31B3
Net income−$471.7M4−$547.8M5−$434.8M6−$190.4M6−$208.2M6
Operating cash flow−$335.2M7−$431.5M8−$247M9$135.7M9$215.3M9
Capital expenditure$41M10$47.7M11$39.2M12$66.4M12$106.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$376.3M7−$479.2M8−$286.2M9$69.2M9$109.1M9
Total debt$330.4M13$362M14$363.3M15$80.4M16$80.3M16
Cash & equivalents$84.4M17$466M17$642.1M18$945.6M18$1.08B18
Diluted shares90.6M98.4M115.0M124.7M136.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$125.25
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$15.23
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.98
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.87

10 shares is a claim on $125.25 of net worth that earned you −$15.23 and generated $7.98 of cash last year, against $5.87 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-50% avg · 5y
FY21 -41%FY22 -71%FY23 -68%FY24 -43%FY25 -29%

It earned about -50% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+51% shares · 5y

Share count is up 51% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 76% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.27 and $17.03 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$17.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$69.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$69.2M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.27
The three cases
Bear0.0%$14.52
Base5.0%$16.27
Bull10.0%$18.37

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002083 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001869 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020881 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002083 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001869 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020881 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002083 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001869 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020881 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002083 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001869 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020881 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-002022 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002083 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001869 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020881 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002460 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020881 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)