MeritValue

Nutrien Ltd.

NTRdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Nutrien Ltd. earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 15% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $39.99 and $48.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$27.7B1$37.9B2$29.1B3$26B4$26.9B4
Net income$3.15B5$7.66B6$1.26B7$674M8$2.27B8
Operating cash flow$3.89B9$8.11B10$5.07B11$3.54B12$4.01B12
Capital expenditure$1.78B13$2.25B14$2.42B15$2.03B16$1.88B16
Free cash flow (derived)$2.11B9$5.86B10$2.65B11$1.51B12$2.13B12
Total debt———$9.92B17$9.86B17
Cash & equivalents$499M18$901M19$941M20$853M20$701M20
Diluted shares569.7M538.5M496.4M494.2M486.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$520.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$46.61
Free cash flow it threw off
$43.69
Debt you’d be carrying
$202.8

10 shares is a claim on $520.69 of net worth that earned you $46.61 and generated $43.69 of cash last year, against $202.8 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 31%FY23 5%FY24 2%FY25 7%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−15% shares · 5y

Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $39.99 and $48.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$39.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.3%
  • fcfBase$2.13B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$44.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.3%
  • fcfBase$2.13B
Earnings Power Value
$48.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.27B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$73.89
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $44.29
The three cases
Bear0.0%$43.59
Base0.3%$44.29
Bull5.3%$59.54

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-048055 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-055096 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-041502 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081326 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-048055 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-055096 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-041502 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081326 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-048055 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-055096 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-041502 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081326 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-048055 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-055096 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-041502 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081326 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081326 (Borrowings)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-055096 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-041502 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  20. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081326 (CashAndCashEquivalents)