MeritValue

Nutanix, Inc.

NTNXdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

The estimate methods put fair value between $38,682.77 and $41,740.89 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.39B1$1.58B2$1.86B3$2.15B3$2.54B3
Net income−$1.04B4−$798.9M5−$254.6M6−$124.8M6$188.4M6
Operating cash flow−$99.8M7$67.5M8$272.4M9$672.9M9$821.5M9
Capital expenditure$58.6M10$49.1M11$65.4M12$75.3M12$71.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$158.5M7$18.5M8$207M9$597.7M9$750.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$285.7M13$402.9M14$512.9M15$655.3M15$769.5M15
Diluted shares206,475220,529233,247244,743294,083

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$23,616.46
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6,405.2
Free cash flow it threw off
$25,508.89
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$23,616.46 of net worth that earned you $6,405.2 and generated $25,508.89 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+42% shares · 5y

Share count is up 42% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $38,682.77 and $41,740.89 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$41,740.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$597.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$38,682.77
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$597.7M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $38,682.77
The three cases
Bear0.0%$31,654.3
Base5.0%$38,682.77
Bull10.0%$47,092.85

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000950170-23-049179 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000950170-24-108159 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0001193125-25-213801 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000950170-23-049179 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000950170-24-108159 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0001193125-25-213801 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000950170-23-049179 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000950170-24-108159 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0001193125-25-213801 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000950170-23-049179 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000950170-24-108159 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0001193125-25-213801 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000950170-23-049179 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000950170-24-108159 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-31 · accession 0001193125-25-213801 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)