MeritValue

NORTHERN TECHNOLOGIES INTERNATIONAL CORP

NTICdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

NORTHERN TECHNOLOGIES INTERNATIONAL CORP earns about 6% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.97 and $5.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$56.5M1$74.2M2$79.9M3$85.1M4$84.2M4
Net income$6.28M5$6.32M6$2.91M7$5.41M8$17,6198
Operating cash flow$2.89M9$1.15M10$5.54M11$5.88M12$2.44M12
Capital expenditure$5.53M13$1.5M14$3.25M15$1.92M16$1.53M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$2.64M9−$350,59610$2.29M11$3.97M12$916,51812
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$7.68M17$5.33M18$5.41M19$4.95M20$7.25M20
Diluted shares9.9M9.6M9.7M9.8M9.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$74.85
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.02
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.95
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $74.85 of net worth that earned you $0.02 and generated $0.95 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
6% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 10%FY23 4%FY24 8%FY25 0%

It earned about 6% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.97 and $5.81 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$5.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$2.29M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$2.29M
Earnings Power Value
$5.81
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.41M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4.97
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.15
Base5.0%$4.97
Bull10.0%$5.96

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001171843-22-007494 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001171843-23-007230 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001171843-24-006440 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001171843-25-007481 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001171843-22-007494 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001171843-23-007230 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001171843-24-006440 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001171843-25-007481 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001171843-22-007494 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001171843-23-007230 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001171843-24-006440 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001171843-25-007481 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001171843-22-007494 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001171843-23-007230 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001171843-24-006440 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001171843-25-007481 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001171843-22-007494 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001171843-23-007230 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001171843-24-006440 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001171843-25-007481 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)