NORTHERN TECHNOLOGIES INTERNATIONAL CORP earns about 6% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.76 and $5.61 a share. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $56.5M1 | $74.2M2 | $79.9M3 | $85.1M4 | $84.2M4 |
| Net income | $6.28M5 | $6.32M6 | $2.91M7 | $5.41M8 | $17,6198 |
| Operating cash flow | $2.89M9 | $1.15M10 | $5.54M11 | $5.88M12 | $2.44M12 |
| Capital expenditure | $5.53M13 | $1.5M14 | $3.25M15 | $1.92M16 | $1.53M16 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$2.64M9,13 | −$350,59610,14 | $2.29M11,15 | $3.97M12,16 | $916,51812,16 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $7.68M17 | $5.33M18 | $5.41M19 | $4.95M20 | $7.25M20 |
| Diluted shares | 9.9M | 9.6M | 9.7M | 9.8M | 9.6M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.
10 shares is a claim on $74.85 of net worth that earned you $0.02 and generated $0.95 of cash last year.
It earned about 6% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.76 and $5.61 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
- Equity risk premium5.00%
- Beta (β)1.00
- Equity share of capital85.0%
- Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
- Tax rate21.0%
- Terminal growth2.50%
- Projection period10 years
- FCF growth5.00%
- Starting free cash flow$2.29M
assumptions (10)
- Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
- Equity risk premium5.00%
- Beta (β)1.00
- Equity share of capital85.0%
- Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
- Tax rate21.0%
- Terminal growth2.50%
- Projection period5 years
- FCF growth5.00%
- Starting free cash flow$2.29M
assumptions (8)
- Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
- Equity risk premium5.00%
- Beta (β)1.00
- Equity share of capital85.0%
- Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
- Tax rate21.0%
- Normalized earnings$5.41M
- Growth assumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $3.98 |
| Base | 5.0% | $4.76 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $5.69 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
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See pricing →Follow NTIC and keep your own price beside the value. The same engine, with the same receipts.
MeritValue on the App Store →- 10-K filed 2022-11-15 · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001171843-22-007494 (Revenues)
- 10-K filed 2023-11-21 · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001171843-23-007230 (Revenues)
- 10-K filed 2024-11-19 · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001171843-24-006440 (Revenues)
- 10-K filed 2025-11-20 · periods ending 2024-08-31, 2025-08-31 · accession 0001171843-25-007481 (Revenues)
- 10-K filed 2022-11-15 · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001171843-22-007494 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K filed 2023-11-21 · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001171843-23-007230 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K filed 2024-11-19 · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001171843-24-006440 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K filed 2025-11-20 · periods ending 2024-08-31, 2025-08-31 · accession 0001171843-25-007481 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K filed 2022-11-15 · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001171843-22-007494 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K filed 2023-11-21 · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001171843-23-007230 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K filed 2024-11-19 · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001171843-24-006440 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K filed 2025-11-20 · periods ending 2024-08-31, 2025-08-31 · accession 0001171843-25-007481 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K filed 2022-11-15 · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001171843-22-007494 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K filed 2023-11-21 · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001171843-23-007230 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K filed 2024-11-19 · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001171843-24-006440 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K filed 2025-11-20 · periods ending 2024-08-31, 2025-08-31 · accession 0001171843-25-007481 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K filed 2022-11-15 · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0001171843-22-007494 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K filed 2023-11-21 · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0001171843-23-007230 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K filed 2024-11-19 · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0001171843-24-006440 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K filed 2025-11-20 · periods ending 2024-08-31, 2025-08-31 · accession 0001171843-25-007481 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)