MeritValue

NETGEAR, INC.

NTGRdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

NETGEAR, INC. earns about 0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $39.01 and $41.69 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.17B1$932.5M2$740.8M3$673.8M3$699.6M3
Net income$49.4M4−$69M5−$104.8M6$12.4M6−$17.9M6
Operating cash flow−$4.58M7−$13.7M8$56.9M9$164.8M9$1.61M9
Capital expenditure$9.86M10$5.76M11$5.8M12$8.99M12$20.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$14.4M7−$19.5M8$51.1M9$155.8M9−$18.9M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$263.8M13$146.5M14$176.7M15$286.4M16$209.9M16
Diluted shares31.0M29.0M29.4M29.7M28.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$174.02
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.27
Free cash flow it threw off
−$6.61
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $174.02 of net worth that earned you −$6.27 and generated −$6.61 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 -13%FY23 -3%FY24 7%FY25 -1%

It earned about 0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $39.01 and $41.69 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$41.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$51.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$39.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$51.1M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $39.01
The three cases
Bear0.0%$32.84
Base5.0%$39.01
Bull10.0%$46.39

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016525 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021413 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051346 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016525 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021413 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051346 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016525 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021413 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051346 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016525 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021413 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051346 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003231 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016525 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021413 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051346 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)