NetEase, Inc.

NTESdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

NetEase, Inc. earns about 27% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.31 and $59.18 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13.7B1$14B2$14.6B3$14.4B4$16.1B5
Net income$2.66B6$2.88B7$4.13B8$4.15B9$4.98B10
Operating cash flow$3.91B11$4.02B12$4.98B13$5.44B14$7.26B15
Capital expenditure$251.4M16$304.5M17$324.2M18$174.7M19$152.3M20
Free cash flow (derived)$3.66B11$3.71B12$4.65B13$5.26B14$7.1B15
Total debt$200.1M21$529.9M22$60.3M23$58.6M24
Cash & equivalents$2.28B25$3.61B26$3.02B27$7.04B28$6.74B29
Diluted shares3.37B3.30B3.25B3.23B3.22B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$71.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.46
Free cash flow it threw off
$22.07
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $71.23 of net worth that earned you $15.46 and generated $22.07 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
27% avg · 5y
FY21 21%FY22 23%FY23 28%FY24 34%FY25 31%

It earned about 27% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 71% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.31 and $59.18 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$59.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.9%
  • fcfBase$5.26B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$42.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.9%
  • fcfBase$5.26B
Earnings Power Value
$13.31
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.13B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$15.5
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $42.29
The three cases
Bear0.0%$25.45
Base12.9%$42.29
Bull17.9%$51.14

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-052206 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-050589 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-051449 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000728 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043468 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-052206 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-050589 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-051449 (ProfitLoss)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000728 (ProfitLoss)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043468 (ProfitLoss)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-052206 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-050589 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-051449 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000728 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043468 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-052206 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-050589 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-051449 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000728 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043468 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  21. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-052206 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  22. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-050589 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  23. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-051449 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  24. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000728 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  25. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-052206 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  26. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-050589 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  27. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-051449 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  28. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000728 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  29. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-043468 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)