MeritValue

NETSCOUT SYSTEMS INC

NTCTdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NETSCOUT SYSTEMS INC earns about -4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.07 and $52.49 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$855.6M1$914.5M2$829.5M3$822.7M3$859.5M3
Net income$35.9M4$59.6M5−$147.7M6−$366.9M6$95.5M6
Operating cash flow$296M7$156.7M8$58.8M9$217.7M9$294.5M9
Capital expenditure$10.4M10$10.5M11$6.36M12$5.41M12$9.11M12
Free cash flow (derived)$285.7M7$146.2M8$52.4M9$212.3M9$285.4M9
Total debt$350M13$100M14$100M15$015—
Cash & equivalents$636.2M16$386.8M17$389.7M18$457.4M19$586.5M19
Diluted shares75.1M73.0M71.5M71.6M73.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$224.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.02
Free cash flow it threw off
$38.91
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $224.83 of net worth that earned you $13.02 and generated $38.91 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-4% avg · 5y
FY22 2%FY23 4%FY24 -7%FY25 -26%FY26 9%

It earned about -4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.07 and $52.49 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$51.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.7%
  • fcfBase$212.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$52.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.7%
  • fcfBase$212.3M
Earnings Power Value
$5.07
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$35.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$25.64
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $52.49
The three cases
Bear0.0%$49.34
Base1.7%$52.49
Bull6.7%$63.13

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001628280-24-023777 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001628280-25-025982 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001078075-26-000050 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001628280-24-023777 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001628280-25-025982 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001078075-26-000050 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001628280-24-023777 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001628280-25-025982 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001078075-26-000050 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001628280-24-023777 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001628280-25-025982 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001078075-26-000050 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001628280-23-018414 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001628280-24-023777 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001628280-25-025982 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001628280-23-018414 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001628280-24-023777 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001628280-25-025982 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001078075-26-000050 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)