MeritValue

Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Ltd

NTBdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Ltd earns about 21% on equity, and has bought back 20% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $56.11 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$499.7M1$549.3M2$578.6M3$579.9M3$606.8M3
Net income$162.7M4$214M5$225.5M6$216.3M6$231.9M6
Operating cash flow$251.3M7$219.3M8$300.3M9$265.4M9$279.6M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$171.9M10$172.3M11$98.5M12$98.7M13$013
Cash & equivalents$2.18B14$2.1B15$1.65B16$2B17$1.71B17
Diluted shares49.9M50.3M47.5M43.5M39.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$285.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$58.06
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $285.83 of net worth that earned you $58.06 last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
21% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 25%FY23 22%FY24 21%FY25 20%

It earned an average 21% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−20% shares · 5y

Share count is down 20% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$56.11
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$216.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$59.31
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001653242-24-000008 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001653242-25-000010 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001653242-26-000006 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001653242-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001653242-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001653242-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001653242-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001653242-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001653242-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001653242-23-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001653242-24-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001653242-25-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001653242-26-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001653242-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001653242-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001653242-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001653242-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)