MeritValue

NSTS Bancorp, Inc.

NSTSdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

NSTS Bancorp, Inc. earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $33.3 and $55.14 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$289,0001$291,0002$270,0003$256,0004$252,0004
Net income−$55,0005$27,0006−$3.96M7−$789,0008−$386,0008
Operating cash flow$1.45M9$2.99M10$431,00011$9.43M12$4.05M12
Capital expenditure$142,00013$215,00014$516,00015$319,00016$104,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$1.31M9$2.77M10−$85,00011$9.11M12$3.95M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$121.6M17$13.1M18$31.4M19$53.5M20$34M20
Diluted shares04.7M5.0M4.9M4.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$163.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.79
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.08
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $163.63 of net worth that earned you −$0.79 and generated $8.08 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 1%FY23 -2%FY24 22%FY25 12%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Not enough history to read capital allocation.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $33.3 and $55.14 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$55.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$3.95M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$33.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$3.95M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $33.3
The three cases
Bear0.0%$18.51
Base20.0%$33.3
Bull20.0%$33.3

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008624 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009830 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009831 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010098 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008624 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009830 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009831 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010098 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008624 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009830 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009831 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010098 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008624 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009830 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009831 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010098 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008624 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009830 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-009831 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-010098 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)