MeritValue

NAPCO SECURITY TECHNOLOGIES, INC

NSSCdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

NAPCO SECURITY TECHNOLOGIES, INC earns about 43% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.04 and $84.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$143.6M1$170M2$188.8M3$181.6M3$202.3M3
Net income$19.6M4$27.1M5$49.8M6$43.4M6$43M6
Operating cash flow$8.33M7$24.7M8$45.4M9$53.5M9$61.1M9
Capital expenditure$1.48M10$2.96M11$1.59M12$2.12M12$1.92M12
Free cash flow (derived)$6.85M7$21.7M8$43.8M9$51.4M9$59.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$41.7M13$36M14$65.3M15$83.1M16$126.9M16
Diluted shares36.9M37.0M37.1M36.5M35.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$53.22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.99
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.5
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $53.22 of net worth that earned you $11.99 and generated $16.5 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
43% avg · 5y
FY22 27%FY23 26%FY24 44%FY25 51%FY26 67%

It earned about 43% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.04 and $84.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$84.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate5.0%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$51.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$48.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate5.0%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$51.4M
Earnings Power Value
$12.04
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate5.0%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$43M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$12.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.23%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $48.02
The three cases
Bear0.0%$23.1
Base20.0%$48.02
Bull20.0%$48.02

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-012547 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-011750 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001104659-26-100081 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-012547 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-011750 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001104659-26-100081 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-012547 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-011750 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001104659-26-100081 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-012547 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-011750 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001104659-26-100081 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015591 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-012547 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-011750 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001104659-26-100081 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)