MeritValue

INSPERITY, INC.

NSPdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

INSPERITY, INC. earns about 120% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $33.84 and $66.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.97B1$5.94B2$6.49B3$6.58B3$6.81B3
Net income$124.1M4$179M5$171M6$91M6−$7M6
Operating cash flow$260.2M7$347M8$198M9$520M9−$278M9
Capital expenditure$32.9M10$30M11$40M12$38M12$31M12
Free cash flow (derived)$227.3M7$317M8$158M9$482M9−$309M9
Total debt$369.4M13$369.4M14$369M15$369M16$369M16
Cash & equivalents$576M17$733M18$693M18$1.04B18$642M18
Diluted shares38.9M39.0M38.0M38.0M38.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$12.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.84
Free cash flow it threw off
−$81.32
Debt you’d be carrying
$97.11

10 shares is a claim on $12.11 of net worth that earned you −$1.84 and generated −$81.32 of cash last year, against $97.11 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
120% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 221%FY23 182%FY24 94%FY25 -15%

It earned about 120% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $33.84 and $66.59 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$62.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$158M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$66.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$158M
Earnings Power Value
$33.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$124.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $66.59
The three cases
Bear0.0%$66.59
Base0.0%$66.59
Bull5.0%$80.97

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001000753-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000753-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001000753-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001000753-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000753-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001000753-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001000753-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000753-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001000753-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001000753-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000753-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001000753-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001000753-23-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000753-24-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001000753-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001000753-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001000753-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001000753-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)