Neostellar Capital Corp.

NSLRdata completeness 50%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'cash'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Neostellar Capital Corp. earns about -4% on equity, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	—	—	—	—	—
Net income	$147.1M¹	−$132.2M²	$5.07M³	−$38.1M³	$48.8M³
Operating cash flow	$183.7M⁴	−$110.6M⁵	$2.38M⁶	$2.37M⁶	$34.3M⁶
Capital expenditure	—	—	—	—	—
Free cash flow (derived)	—	—	—	—	—
Total debt	—	—	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	—	—	—	—	—
Diluted shares	26.8M	30.0M	26.2M	23.9M	28.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$71.32

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

$16.95

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $71.32 of net worth that earned you $16.95 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-4% avg · 5y

FY21 40%FY22 -63%FY23 2%FY24 -24%FY25 24%

It earned an average -4% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+8% shares · 5y

Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

$1.82

assumptions (8)

riskFreeRate4.7%
equityRiskPremium5.0%
beta100.0%
equityWeight85.0%
costOfDebtSpread1.5%
taxRate21.0%
normalizedEarnings$5.07M
growthAssumed0.0%

Graham Number

$16.9

assumptions (1)

grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009905 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-009940 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-009641 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009905 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-25-009940 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-009641 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)