NXT Energy Solutions Inc.

NSFDFdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file

The thesis, from the filings

NXT Energy Solutions Inc. earns about -16% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 19% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2017	FY 2018	FY 2019	FY 2020	FY 2021
Revenue	$0¹	$0¹	$12M²	$136,566²	$3.13M²
Net income	—	—	$3.79M³	−$6.03M³	−$3.12M³
Operating cash flow	−$5.46M⁴	−$6.04M⁴	$4.2M⁵	−$3.41M⁵	−$1.03M⁵
Capital expenditure	−$3.13M⁶	$10,006⁶	$216,691⁷	$0⁷	$0⁷
Free cash flow (derived)	−$2.33M⁴	−$6.05M⁴	$3.98M⁵	−$3.41M⁵	−$1.03M⁵
Total debt	—	—	—	$0⁸	$1M⁸
Cash & equivalents	$166,618⁹	$339,532¹⁰	$2.86M¹⁰	$2.69M¹⁰	$2.26M¹⁰
Diluted shares	54.5M	65.5M	68.2M	64.4M	64.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$2.81

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$0.48

Free cash flow it threw off

−$0.16

Debt you’d be carrying

$0.15

10 shares is a claim on $2.81 of net worth that earned you −$0.48 and generated −$0.16 of cash last year, against $0.15 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on invested capital

-16% avg · 5y

FY17 -33%FY18 -21%FY19 16%FY20 -26%FY21 -14%

It earned an average -16% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+19% shares · 5y

Share count is up 19% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

20-F · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001654954-19-005027 (Revenues)
20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001654954-22-005703 (Revenues)
20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001654954-22-005703 (NetIncomeLoss)
20-F · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001654954-19-005027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001654954-22-005703 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
20-F · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001654954-19-005027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001654954-22-005703 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001654954-22-005703 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
20-F · period ending 2017-12-31 · accession 0001654954-19-005027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
20-F · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001654954-22-005703 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)