MeritValue

NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP

NSCdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP earns about 24% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $102.09 and $132.14 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11.1B1$12.7B2$12.2B3$12.1B3$12.2B3
Net income$3.01B4$3.27B5$1.83B6$2.62B6$2.87B6
Operating cash flow$4.26B7$4.22B8$3.18B9$4.05B9$4.36B9
Capital expenditure$1.47B10$1.95B11$2.33B12$2.38B12$2.2B12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.79B7$2.27B8$852M9$1.67B9$2.16B9
Total debt$553M13$803M14$4M14$555M15$607M15
Cash & equivalents$839M16$456M17$1.57B18$1.64B19$1.53B19
Diluted shares248.1M235.6M227.4M226.4M225.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$690.06
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$127.52
Free cash flow it threw off
$95.74
Debt you’d be carrying
$26.94

10 shares is a claim on $690.06 of net worth that earned you $127.52 and generated $95.74 of cash last year, against $26.94 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
24% avg · 5y
FY21 26%FY22 29%FY23 21%FY24 25%FY25 20%

It earned about 24% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $102.09 and $132.14 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$102.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.67B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$110.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.67B
Earnings Power Value
$132.14
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.87B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$140.7
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $110.07
The three cases
Bear0.0%$110.07
Base0.0%$110.07
Bull5.0%$135.72

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000702165-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000702165-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-006268 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000702165-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000702165-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-006268 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000702165-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000702165-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-006268 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000702165-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000702165-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-006268 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000702165-23-000010 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000702165-24-000005 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-006268 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000702165-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000702165-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000702165-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-006268 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)