MeritValue

National Storage Affiliates Trust

NSAdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

National Storage Affiliates Trust earns about 18% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 43% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.23 and $82.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$585.7M1$801.6M2$858.1M3$770.3M3$752.9M3
Net income$105.3M4$103.7M5$156.7M6$111.5M6$73.8M6
Operating cash flow$331.3M7$443.8M8$441.6M9$363.1M9$338.5M9
Capital expenditure$27.6M10$42.8M11$34.2M12$18.7M12$38.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$303.8M7$401M8$407.3M9$344.4M9$299.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$25M13$35.3M14$65M15$50.4M16$23.3M16
Diluted shares134.5M91.2M146.0M76.8M76.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$123.44
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.63
Free cash flow it threw off
$39.12
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $123.44 of net worth that earned you $9.63 and generated $39.12 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 18%FY23 30%FY24 18%FY25 13%

It earned about 18% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−43% shares · 5y

Share count is down 43% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.23 and $82.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$82.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.3%
  • fcfBase$344.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$77.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.3%
  • fcfBase$344.4M
Earnings Power Value
$14.23
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$105.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$13.84
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $77.62
The three cases
Bear0.0%$64.51
Base4.3%$77.62
Bull9.3%$95.75

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007624 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008656 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012248 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007624 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008656 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012248 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007624 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008656 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012248 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007624 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008656 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012248 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005252 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007624 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008656 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012248 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)