MeritValue

NRX Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

NRXPdata completeness 75%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NRX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. earns about -492% on equity, and has bought back 54% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue——$01$02$1.23M2
Net income−$93.1M3−$39.8M4−$30.2M5−$25.1M6−$28.6M6
Operating cash flow−$37.7M7−$39.8M8−$21.7M9−$10.6M10−$14.1M10
Capital expenditure$7,00011$10,00012$3,00013$013—
Free cash flow (derived)−$37.7M7−$39.8M8−$21.7M9−$10.6M10—
Total debt—$21.1M14$18.3M15——
Cash & equivalents$27.6M16$20.1M17$4.6M18$1.44M19$7.8M19
Diluted shares46.9M65.8M7.6M10.6M21.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$7.45
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$13.37
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$7.45 of net worth that earned you −$13.37 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-492% avg · 5y
FY21 -447%FY22 -537%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -492% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−54% shares · 5y

Share count is down 54% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 13% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007743 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009418 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005292 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004396 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007743 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009418 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005292 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004396 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007743 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009418 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005292 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004396 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007743 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004396 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004396 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005292 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004396 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007743 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009418 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)