MeritValue

NATIONAL RURAL UTILITIES COOPERATIVE FINANCE CORP /DC/

NRUCdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

NATIONAL RURAL UTILITIES COOPERATIVE FINANCE CORP /DC/ earns about 28% on equity. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$811.7M1$795.8M2$501.5M3$553.3M3$139.7M3
Operating cash flow$240M4$250.8M5$337.8M6$320.6M6$207.5M6
Capital expenditure$9.86M7$17.7M8$7.72M9$6.15M9$4.7M9
Free cash flow (derived)$230.1M4$233.1M5$330.1M6$314.5M6$202.8M6
Total debt$25.2B10$26.5B11$28.5B12$30.2B13$32.3B13
Cash & equivalents$295.1M14$153.6M15$198.9M16$280.1M17$134.7M17
Diluted shares00000

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

0
iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
28% avg · 5y
FY21 59%FY22 38%FY23 20%FY24 18%FY25 5%

It earned an average 28% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Total debt has risen 28% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
no diluted share count — cannot compute per-share value
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
no diluted share count — cannot compute per-share value
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
no diluted share count
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0000070502-23-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000070502-24-000045 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000070502-25-000211 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0000070502-23-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000070502-24-000045 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000070502-25-000211 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0000070502-23-000030 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000070502-24-000045 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000070502-25-000211 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0000070502-22-000038 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000070502-23-000030 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000070502-24-000045 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0000070502-25-000211 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0000070502-22-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0000070502-23-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0000070502-24-000045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0000070502-25-000211 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)