MeritValue

NOBLE ROMANS INC

NROMdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

NOBLE ROMANS INC earns about 125% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 36% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.16 and $0.68 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13.9M1$14.5M2$14.4M3$15.1M4$16.2M4
Net income$509,4655−$1.31M6$1.46M7−$3,1748$1.17M8
Operating cash flow$1.52M9$29,58410$1.57M11$813,59912$1.24M12
Capital expenditure$1.45M13$507,57514$13,82514$88,30115$144,20115
Free cash flow (derived)$69,1509−$477,99110$1.55M11$725,29812$1.1M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.26M16$785,52217$872,33517$710,22718$533,67018
Diluted shares23.6M22.2M23.6M23.9M32.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.37
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.34
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $1.07 of net worth that earned you $0.37 and generated $0.34 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
125% avg · 5y
FY21 107%FY22 —FY23 243%FY24 78%FY25 74%

It earned about 125% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+36% shares · 5y

Share count is up 36% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.16 and $0.68 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.68
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.1M
Earnings Power Value
$0.16
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$509,465
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$0.31
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.63
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.51
Base5.0%$0.63
Bull10.0%$0.77

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004699 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-006563 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-006725 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-005747 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004699 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-006563 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-006725 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-005747 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004699 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-006563 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-006725 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-005747 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004699 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-006563 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-005747 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004699 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-006563 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-005747 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)