MeritValue

Energy Vault Holdings, Inc.

NRGVdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. earns about -81% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 1156% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$145.9M2$341.5M3$46.2M4$203.7M4
Net income−$31.3M5−$78.3M6−$98.4M7−$135.8M8−$103.6M8
Operating cash flow−$22.1M9−$23.3M10−$92.7M11−$55.9M12−$5.65M12
Capital expenditure$170,00013$2.32M14$30.4M15$58.9M16$41.1M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$22.2M9−$25.7M10−$123.1M11−$114.7M12−$46.7M12
Total debt———$017$94.6M17
Cash & equivalents$105.1M18$203M19$109.9M20$27.1M21$58.3M21
Diluted shares12.8M123.2M142.9M149.8M160.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$4.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.45
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.91
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.89

10 shares is a claim on $4.2 of net worth that earned you −$6.45 and generated −$2.91 of cash last year, against $5.89 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-81% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -73%FY23 -69%FY24 -108%FY25 -73%

It earned an average -81% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1156% shares · 5y

Share count is up 1156% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001828536-23-000040 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828536-24-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828536-25-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001828536-26-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001828536-23-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828536-24-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828536-25-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001828536-26-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001828536-23-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828536-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828536-25-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001828536-26-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001828536-23-000040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828536-24-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828536-25-000032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001828536-26-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001828536-26-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001828536-23-000040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828536-24-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828536-25-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001828536-26-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)