MeritValue

NRG ENERGY, INC.

NRGdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NRG ENERGY, INC. earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 19% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $58.58 and $253.23 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$26.8B1$31.5B2$28.3B3$27.7B3$30.3B3
Net income$2.19B4$1.22B5−$202M6$1.13B6$864M6
Operating cash flow$493M7$360M8−$221M9$2.31B9$1.91B9
Capital expenditure$269M10$367M11$598M12$472M12$1.15B12
Free cash flow (derived)$224M7−$7M8−$819M9$1.83B9$766M9
Total debt$8.1B13$8.1B14$10.9B15$10.9B15—
Cash & equivalents$250M16$430M17$541M18$966M18$4.71B18
Diluted shares245.0M236.0M228.0M212.0M199.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$84.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$43.42
Free cash flow it threw off
$38.49
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $84.47 of net worth that earned you $43.42 and generated $38.49 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 22%FY22 13%FY23 3%FY24 9%FY25 —

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−19% shares · 5y

Share count is down 19% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 34% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $58.58 and $253.23 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$253.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$766M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$149.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$766M
Earnings Power Value
$58.58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.13B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$27.61
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $149.16
The three cases
Bear0.0%$78.66
Base20.0%$149.16
Bull20.0%$149.16

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001013871-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013871-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013871-26-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001013871-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013871-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013871-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001013871-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013871-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013871-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001013871-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013871-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013871-26-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001013871-23-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013871-24-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013871-25-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001013871-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013871-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013871-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)