MeritValue

NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc.

NREFdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. earns about 17% on equity, but has diluted owners by 106% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $8.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$83.5M1$14.2M2$18.7M3$36M3$123.1M3
Operating cash flow$49.3M4$65.8M5$31.6M6$29.3M6$22.9M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.28B7$1.35B8$1.27B9$799.3M10$771.2M11
Cash & equivalents$26.5M12$20M13$13.8M14$3.88M15$31.1M15
Diluted shares20.4M14.7M17.2M17.4M42.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$92.35
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$29.31
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$183.57

10 shares is a claim on $92.35 of net worth that earned you $29.31 last year, against $183.57 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
17% avg · 5y
FY21 34%FY22 3%FY23 5%FY24 11%FY25 32%

It earned an average 17% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+106% shares · 5y

Share count is up 106% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 40% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$8.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$36M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.34
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001786248-24-000004 (ProfitLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001786248-25-000004 (ProfitLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134672 (ProfitLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001786248-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001786248-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134672 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-004658 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001786248-23-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001786248-24-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001786248-25-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134672 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001786248-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001786248-24-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001786248-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-134672 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)