MeritValue

NERDWALLET, INC.

NRDSdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NERDWALLET, INC. earns about -3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 46% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $31.97 and $57.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$379.6M1$538.9M2$599.4M3$687.6M3$836.6M3
Net income−$42.5M4−$10.2M5−$11.8M6$30.4M6$48.7M6
Operating cash flow$7.2M7$25M8$72.1M9$71.8M9$131.6M9
Capital expenditure$2.3M10$4.6M11$700,00012$600,00012$1.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$4.9M7$20.4M8$71.4M9$71.2M9$130.3M9
Total debt$013————
Cash & equivalents$167.8M14$83.9M15$100.4M16$66.3M17$98.3M17
Diluted shares51.9M70.6M76.7M78.9M75.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$49.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.42
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.17
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $49.34 of net worth that earned you $6.42 and generated $17.17 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-3% avg · 5y
FY21 -32%FY22 -5%FY23 1%FY24 2%FY25 18%

It earned about -3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+46% shares · 5y

Share count is up 46% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $31.97 and $57.4 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$57.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$71.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$31.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$71.4M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$8.43
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $31.97
The three cases
Bear0.0%$14.74
Base20.0%$31.97
Bull20.0%$31.97

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001625278-24-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001625278-25-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001625278-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001625278-24-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001625278-25-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001625278-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001625278-24-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001625278-25-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001625278-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001625278-24-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001625278-25-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001625278-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001625278-22-000029 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001625278-23-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001625278-24-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001625278-25-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001625278-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)