NRC HEALTH
NRCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on fileNRC HEALTH earns about 38% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.15 and $14.33 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $148M1 | $151.6M2 | $148.6M3 | $143.1M3 | $137.4M3 |
| Net income | $37.5M4 | $31.8M5 | $31M6 | $24.8M6 | $11.6M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $46.3M7 | $36.3M8 | $38.1M9 | $34.6M9 | $26.5M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $5.51M10 | $9.84M11 | $15.8M12 | $15.4M12 | $10.7M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $40.8M7 | $26.4M8 | $22.3M9 | $19.2M9 | $15.7M9 |
| Total debt | $26.6M13 | $22.3M14 | $66.3M15 | $57.9M16 | $75M16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $54.4M17 | $25M18 | $6.65M19 | $4.23M20 | $4.14M20 |
| Diluted shares | 25.6M | 25.1M | 24.7M | 23.7M | 22.4M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $6.25 of net worth that earned you $5.18 and generated $7.03 of cash last year, against $33.5 of debt.
It earned about 38% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 182% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.15 and $14.33 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$19.2M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$19.2M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$31M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $9.07 |
| Base | 0.0% | $9.07 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $12.03 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005690 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007867 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007002 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005690 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007867 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007002 (ProfitLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005690 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007867 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007002 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005690 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007867 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007002 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005305 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005690 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007867 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007002 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005305 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005690 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007867 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)