MeritValue

NPK International Inc.

NPKIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NPK International Inc. earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.11 and $5.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$614.8M1$193M2$207.6M3$217.5M3$277M3
Net income−$25.5M4−$20.8M5$14.5M6−$150.3M6$38.9M6
Operating cash flow−$3.01M7−$25M8$100M9$38.2M9$73M9
Capital expenditure$21.8M10$28.3M11$29.2M12$43.5M12$46.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$24.8M7−$53.3M8$70.8M9−$5.36M9$26.3M9
Total debt$248.8M13$250.7M14$124.1M15$15.5M16$33.7M16
Cash & equivalents$24.1M17$86,00018$789,00019$17.8M19$5.14M19
Diluted shares91.5M94.0M88.3M87.4M85.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$40.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.54
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.07
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.93

10 shares is a claim on $40.97 of net worth that earned you $4.54 and generated $3.07 of cash last year, against $3.93 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 -1%FY22 1%FY23 4%FY24 10%FY25 9%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 86% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.11 and $5.58 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$5.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$26.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$5.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$26.3M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$6.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $5.11
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.05
Base5.0%$5.11
Bull10.0%$6.39

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000071829-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000071829-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000071829-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000071829-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000071829-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000071829-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000071829-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000071829-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000071829-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000071829-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000071829-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000071829-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000071829-23-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000071829-24-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000071829-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000071829-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000071829-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000071829-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000071829-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)