MeritValue

NATIONAL PRESTO INDUSTRIES INC

NPKdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

NATIONAL PRESTO INDUSTRIES INC earns about 10% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 101132% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $47.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$355.8M1$321.6M2$340.9M3$388.2M3$503.5M3
Net income$25.7M4$20.7M5$34.6M6$41.5M6$33.1M6
Operating cash flow$34.7M7$8.77M8$45.4M9−$53.4M9−$9.14M9
Capital expenditure$2.87M10$1.03M11$1.84M12$7.53M12$27M12
Free cash flow (derived)$31.8M7$7.74M8$43.5M9−$61M9−$36.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$109.8M13$70.7M14$87.7M15$17.7M16$3.25M16
Diluted shares7,0607,0817.1M7.1M7.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$552.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$46.29
Free cash flow it threw off
−$50.61
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $552.87 of net worth that earned you $46.29 and generated −$50.61 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 7%FY23 13%FY24 12%FY25 8%

It earned an average 10% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+101132% shares · 5y

Share count is up 101132% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$47.97
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$33.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008099 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007735 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008214 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008099 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007735 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008214 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008099 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007735 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008214 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008099 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007735 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008214 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006380 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008099 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007735 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008214 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)