MeritValue

NeuroPace Inc

NPCEdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

NeuroPace Inc earns about -159% on equity, but has diluted owners by 97% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$45.2M1$45.5M2$65.4M3$79.9M4$100M4
Net income−$36.1M5−$47.1M6−$33M7−$27.1M8−$21.5M8
Operating cash flow−$24.6M9−$36.9M10−$19.7M11−$17.9M12−$11M12
Capital expenditure$384,00013$603,00014$173,00015$306,00016$332,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$25M9−$37.5M10−$19.9M11−$18.3M12−$11.3M12
Total debt$49.8M17$52.9M18$57M19$59.5M20$58.9M20
Cash & equivalents$19.2M21$6.61M22$18.1M23$13.4M24$21.7M24
Diluted shares16.6M24.6M25.9M29.1M32.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$5.82
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.56
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.46
Debt you’d be carrying
$17.99

10 shares is a claim on $5.82 of net worth that earned you −$6.56 and generated −$3.46 of cash last year, against $17.99 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-159% avg · 5y
FY21 -49%FY22 -135%FY23 -160%FY24 -339%FY25 -113%

It earned an average -159% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+97% shares · 5y

Share count is up 97% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 18% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001528287-23-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001528287-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001528287-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001528287-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001528287-23-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001528287-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001528287-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001528287-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001528287-23-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001528287-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001528287-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001528287-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001528287-23-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001528287-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001528287-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001528287-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001528287-23-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001528287-24-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001528287-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001528287-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001528287-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001528287-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001528287-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001528287-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)