NORTHPOINTE BANCSHARES INC

NPBdata completeness 75%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

NORTHPOINTE BANCSHARES INC earns about 192% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 31% over 3 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.88 and $38.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue
Net income$33.8M1$55.2M2$83.4M2
Operating cash flow$504.2M3$19.8M4$44.3M4
Capital expenditure$2.81M5$1.05M6$2.77M6
Free cash flow (derived)$501.4M3$18.8M4$41.5M4
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$351.9M7$376.3M8$496.5M8
Diluted shares25.8M25.8M33.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$168.04
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$24.63
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.26
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $168.04 of net worth that earned you $24.63 and generated $12.26 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
192% avg · 3y
FY23 140%FY24 164%FY25 272%

It earned about 192% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+31% shares · 3y

Share count is up 31% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.88 and $38.27 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$38.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$41.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$36.42
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$41.5M
Earnings Power Value
$16.88
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$55.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$28.24
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $36.42
The three cases
Bear0.0%$32.18
Base5.0%$36.42
Bull10.0%$41.5

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015483 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001336706-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015483 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001336706-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015483 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001336706-26-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-015483 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001336706-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)