MeritValue

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.

NPdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$84.9M1$119.3M1$159.6M1
Net income$17.9M2$34.6M2$37.4M2
Operating cash flow$18.6M3$49.9M3$51.7M3
Capital expenditure———
Free cash flow (derived)———
Total debt—$133.7M4$04
Cash & equivalents$24.3M5$7.09M6$8.04M6
Diluted shares93.5M93.3M104.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$21.77
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.58
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on −$21.77 of net worth that earned you $3.58 last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 3y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12% shares · 3y

Share count is up 12% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$3.43
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$34.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002067129-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002067129-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002067129-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002067129-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002067129-26-000007 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002067129-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)