MeritValue

ServiceNow, Inc.

NOWdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ServiceNow, Inc. earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 415% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.11 and $198.15 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.9B1$7.25B2$8.97B3$11B3$13.3B3
Net income$230M4$325M5$1.73B6$1.43B6$1.75B6
Operating cash flow$2.19B7$2.72B8$3.4B9$4.27B9$5.44B9
Capital expenditure$392M10$550M11$694M12$852M12$868M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.8B7$2.17B8$2.7B9$3.42B9$4.58B9
Total debt$92M13$013———
Cash & equivalents$1.73B14$1.47B15$1.9B16$2.3B16$3.73B16
Diluted shares203.2M203.5M1.03B1.04B1.05B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$123.86
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$43.72
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $123.86 of net worth that earned you $16.7 and generated $43.72 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 10%FY23 18%FY24 20%FY25 19%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+415% shares · 5y

Share count is up 415% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.11 and $198.15 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$198.15
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$3.42B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$109.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$3.42B
Earnings Power Value
$14.11
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.43B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$21.57
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $109.93
The three cases
Bear0.0%$50.18
Base20.0%$109.93
Bull20.0%$109.93

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001373715-24-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001373715-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001373715-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001373715-24-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001373715-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001373715-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001373715-24-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001373715-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001373715-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001373715-24-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001373715-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001373715-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001373715-23-000035 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001373715-24-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001373715-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001373715-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)