MeritValue

NOKIA CORP

NOKdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

NOKIA CORP earns about 8% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near €2.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue€22.2B1€23.8B2€21.1B3€19.2B3€19.9B3
Net income€1.62B4€4.25B5€665M6€1.28B6€651M6
Operating cash flow€2.63B7€1.47B8€1.32B9€2.49B9€2.07B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt€4.65B10€4.48B11€4.19B12€3.89B13€3.41B13
Cash & equivalents€6.69B14€5.47B15€6.23B15€6.62B15€5.46B15
Diluted shares5.68B5.63B5.61B5.61B5.74B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€36.51
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
€1.13
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
€5.94

10 shares is a claim on €36.51 of net worth that earned you €1.13 last year, against €5.94 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 11%FY23 4%FY24 10%FY25 3%

It earned an average 8% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 27% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
€2.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings€1.28B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
€3.14
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000924613-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000924613-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015034 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000924613-24-000013 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000924613-25-000008 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015034 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000924613-24-000013 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000924613-25-000008 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015034 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002653 (Borrowings)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000924613-24-000013 (Borrowings)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000924613-25-000008 (Borrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015034 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000924613-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-015034 (CashAndCashEquivalents)