MeritValue

NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC.

NOGdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. earns about 16% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 58% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $54.29 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$975.1M1$1.99B1$2.17B2$2.23B2$2.48B2
Net income$6.36M3$773.2M4$923M5$520.3M5$38.8M5
Operating cash flow$396.5M6$928.4M7$1.18B8$1.41B8$1.51B8
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.61B9$1.53B10$1.84B11$2.37B12$2.4B12
Cash & equivalents$9.52M13$2.53M14$8.2M15$8.93M16$14.3M16
Diluted shares63.0M86.7M92.1M101.3M99.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$214.1
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.9
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$241.19

10 shares is a claim on $214.1 of net worth that earned you $3.9 last year, against $241.19 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 38%FY23 27%FY24 11%FY25 1%

It earned an average 16% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+58% shares · 5y

Share count is up 58% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 49% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$54.29
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$520.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$13.71
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104485-23-000041 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104485-26-000008 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104485-24-000045 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104485-25-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104485-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104485-24-000045 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104485-25-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104485-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104485-22-000047 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104485-24-000045 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104485-25-000039 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104485-26-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104485-23-000041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104485-24-000045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104485-25-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104485-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)