MeritValue

NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC.

NOGdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC. earns about 17% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 58% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $52.39 a share. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$975.1M1$1.99B1$2.17B2$2.23B2$2.48B2
Net income$6.36M3$773.2M4$923M5$520.3M5$38.8M5
Operating cash flow$396.5M6$928.4M7$1.18B8$1.41B8$1.51B8
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$803.4M9$1.53B10$1.84B11$2.37B12$2.4B12
Cash & equivalents$9.52M13$2.53M14$8.2M15$8.93M16$14.3M16
Diluted shares63.0M86.7M92.1M101.3M99.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$214.1
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.9
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$241.19

10 shares is a claim on $214.1 of net worth that earned you $3.9 last year, against $241.19 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 38%FY23 27%FY24 11%FY25 1%

It earned an average 17% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+58% shares · 5y

Share count is up 58% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 198% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.6.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$52.39
assumptions (8)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Normalized earnings$520.3M
  • Growth assumed0.0%
Graham Number
$13.85
assumptions (1)
  • Graham multiplier (P/E × P/B)22.5×

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Beyond this page

This page is free, and so is every other company on MeritValue.

In your AI assistant

Connect the MeritValue MCP server to Claude or another MCP client, ask about NORTHERN OIL & GAS, INC., and get these exact figures with their filing receipts — not an improvised DCF.

Get a free key →
Screen by model

Pull the companies with a published value under any model (up to 500 a request, filtered by data completeness) into your own sheet or agent. Screening is what Analyst adds, at $9/month.

See pricing →
On iPhone

Follow NOG and keep your own price beside the value. The same engine, with the same receipts.

MeritValue on the App Store →
Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K filed 2023-02-24 · periods ending 2021-12-31, 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104485-23-000041 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104485-26-000008 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K filed 2024-02-23 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104485-24-000045 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K filed 2025-02-20 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104485-25-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104485-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K filed 2024-02-23 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104485-24-000045 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K filed 2025-02-20 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104485-25-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104485-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K filed 2022-02-25 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104485-22-000047 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K filed 2024-02-23 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104485-24-000045 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K filed 2025-02-20 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104485-25-000039 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104485-26-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K filed 2023-02-24 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104485-23-000041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K filed 2024-02-23 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104485-24-000045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K filed 2025-02-20 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104485-25-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104485-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)