MeritValue

NI Holdings, Inc.

NODKdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

NI Holdings, Inc. earns about -2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $40.96 and $51.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.78M1$1.45M1$304M2$325.2M2$285.1M2
Net income$8.42M3−$53.1M4−$5.48M5−$6.06M5−$10.4M5
Operating cash flow$29.2M6−$15.3M7$51M8$38.5M8−$15.3M8
Capital expenditure$739,0009$878,00010$661,00011$991,00011$217,00011
Free cash flow (derived)$28.4M6−$16.2M7$50.4M8$37.5M8−$15.5M8
Total debt——$2.4M12$2.4M13$2.4M14
Cash & equivalents$70.6M15$47M16$41M17$50.9M18$51.7M18
Diluted shares21.7M21.3M21.2M21.1M21.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$114.49
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.96
Free cash flow it threw off
−$7.38
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.14

10 shares is a claim on $114.49 of net worth that earned you −$4.96 and generated −$7.38 of cash last year, against $1.14 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-2% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 -20%FY23 9%FY24 3%FY25 -5%

It earned about -2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $40.96 and $51.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$51.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.7%
  • fcfBase$37.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$40.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.7%
  • fcfBase$37.5M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $40.96
The three cases
Bear0.0%$27.88
Base9.7%$40.96
Bull14.7%$49.65

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174947-23-000312 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174947-26-000305 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000361 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174947-25-000304 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174947-26-000305 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000361 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174947-25-000304 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174947-26-000305 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000361 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174947-25-000304 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174947-26-000305 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000361 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001174947-25-000304 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001174947-26-000305 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001174947-23-000312 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001174947-24-000361 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001174947-25-000304 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001174947-26-000305 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)