MeritValue

NOBILITY HOMES INC

NOBHdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

NOBILITY HOMES INC earns about 26% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $26.74 and $35.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$45.1M1$51.5M2$63.3M3$51.9M4$52.7M4
Net income$5.4M5$7.23M6$10.9M7$8.61M8$8.45M8
Operating cash flow$13.4M9−$7.83M10$10.1M11$7.05M12$4.16M12
Capital expenditure$1.89M13$1.25M14$506,79315$182,13216$179,77316
Free cash flow (derived)$11.5M9−$9.08M10$9.62M11$6.87M12$3.98M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$36.1M17$16.7M18$13.9M19$13.5M20$13.2M20
Diluted shares3.6M3.4M3.3M3.3M3.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$185.51
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$25.81
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.17
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $185.51 of net worth that earned you $25.81 and generated $12.17 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
26% avg · 5y
FY21 41%FY22 23%FY23 28%FY24 20%FY25 18%

It earned about 26% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $26.74 and $35.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$34.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.3%
  • fcfBase$6.87M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$35.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.3%
  • fcfBase$6.87M
Earnings Power Value
$26.74
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$8.45M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$32.82
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $35.84
The three cases
Bear0.0%$34.01
Base1.3%$35.84
Bull6.3%$43.46

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-06 · accession 0001193125-23-021590 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-05 · accession 0000950170-24-062540 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-04 · accession 0000950170-25-011000 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-02 · accession 0001193125-26-031573 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-06 · accession 0001193125-23-021590 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-05 · accession 0000950170-24-062540 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-04 · accession 0000950170-25-011000 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-02 · accession 0001193125-26-031573 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-06 · accession 0001193125-23-021590 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-05 · accession 0000950170-24-062540 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-04 · accession 0000950170-25-011000 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-02 · accession 0001193125-26-031573 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-06 · accession 0001193125-23-021590 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-05 · accession 0000950170-24-062540 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-04 · accession 0000950170-25-011000 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-02 · accession 0001193125-26-031573 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-06 · accession 0001193125-23-021590 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-05 · accession 0000950170-24-062540 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-04 · accession 0000950170-25-011000 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-02 · accession 0001193125-26-031573 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)