NOAH HOLDINGS LTD
NOAHdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
NOAH HOLDINGS LTD earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.17 and $14.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $673.7M1 | $449.5M2 | $464M3 | $356.3M4 | $373.3M5 |
| Net income | $206.2M6 | $141.6M7 | $142.2M8 | $65.1M9 | $79.9M10 |
| Operating cash flow | $238.8M11 | $91.8M12 | $185.7M13 | $53.1M14 | $139.7M15 |
| Capital expenditure | $356.4M16 | $9.09M17 | $22.2M18 | $11.3M19 | $19.2M20 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$117.6M11 | $82.7M12 | $163.4M13 | $41.8M14 | $120.5M15 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $534.3M21 | $638.5M22 | $731.3M23 | $523.7M24 | $623.6M25 |
| Diluted shares | 337.8M | 342.0M | 347.4M | 352.4M | 352.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $39.93 of net worth that earned you $2.27 and generated $3.42 of cash last year.
It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.17 and $14.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth13.4%
- fcfBase$120.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth13.4%
- fcfBase$120.5M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$141.6M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $6.66 |
| Base | 13.4% | $10.37 |
| Bull | 18.4% | $12.25 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 13.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
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- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000852 (NetIncomeLoss)
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