MeritValue

NOCOPI TECHNOLOGIES INC/MD/

NNUPdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

NOCOPI TECHNOLOGIES INC/MD/ earns about -13% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 60% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.1 and $2.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$809,9001$3.61M2$563,2003$511,5004$605,1004
Net income$49,4005$1.81M6−$1.44M7−$2.68M8−$154,9008
Operating cash flow$512,7009−$43,30010−$19,30011$594,80012$713,90012
Capital expenditure$31,60013$80014$28,50015$9,90016$016
Free cash flow (derived)$481,1009−$44,10010−$47,80011$584,90012$713,90012
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.85M17$917,40018$2.27M19$10.8M20$11.6M20
Diluted shares6.7M7.6M9.7M10.5M10.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$12.6
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.14
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.66
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $12.6 of net worth that earned you −$0.14 and generated $0.66 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-13% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 23%FY23 -12%FY24 -75%FY25 -5%

It earned about -13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+60% shares · 5y

Share count is up 60% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.1 and $2.26 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.7%
  • fcfBase$584,900
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.7%
  • fcfBase$584,900
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.1
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.84
Base6.7%$2.1
Bull11.7%$2.34

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 6.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001553350-23-000229 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001079973-24-000431 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001079973-25-000476 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001079973-26-000403 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001553350-23-000229 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001079973-24-000431 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001079973-25-000476 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001079973-26-000403 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001553350-23-000229 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001079973-24-000431 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001079973-25-000476 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001079973-26-000403 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001553350-23-000229 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001079973-24-000431 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001079973-25-000476 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001079973-26-000403 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001553350-23-000229 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001079973-24-000431 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001079973-25-000476 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001079973-26-000403 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)