MeritValue

NNN REIT, INC.

NNNdata completeness 75%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

NNN REIT, INC. earns about 9% on equity, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $21.49 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$726.4M1$773.1M2$828.1M3$869.3M3$926.2M3
Net income$290.1M4$334.6M5$392.3M6$396.8M6$389.8M6
Operating cash flow$568.4M7$578.4M8$612.4M9$635.5M9$667.1M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$171.3M10$2.51M11$1.19M12$8.73M13$5.05M13
Diluted shares174.8M177.1M181.7M184.0M188.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$234.5
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.73
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $234.5 of net worth that earned you $20.73 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
9% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 8%FY23 9%FY24 9%FY25 9%

It earned an average 9% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+8% shares · 5y

Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$21.49
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$389.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.05
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-012540 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-017472 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-045617 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-012540 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-017472 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-045617 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-012540 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-017472 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-045617 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002248 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-012540 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-017472 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-045617 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)