MeritValue

NELNET INC

NNIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NELNET INC earns about 4% on invested capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $112.15 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$523.8M1$742.8M2$1.11B3$973.4M3$851.5M3
Net income$393.3M4$406.9M5$89.8M6$184M6$428.5M6
Operating cash flow$480.3M7$683.1M8$432M9$662.9M9$423M9
Capital expenditure$59M10$59.4M11$74.1M12$20.9M12$26.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$421.4M7$623.6M8$358M9$642M9$396.7M9
Total debt$17.6B13$14.6B14$11.8B15$8.31B16$7.78B16
Cash & equivalents$125.6M17$118.1M18$168.1M18$194.5M18$296M18
Diluted shares38.6M37.6M37.4M36.6M36.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,014.22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$117.9
Free cash flow it threw off
$109.17
Debt you’d be carrying
$2,141.08

10 shares is a claim on $1,014.22 of net worth that earned you $117.9 and generated $109.17 of cash last year, against $2,141.08 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 4%FY23 4%FY24 4%FY25 6%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 56% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$396.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$396.7M
Earnings Power Value
$112.15
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$393.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$164.03
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001258602-24-000024 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001258602-25-000014 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001258602-26-000014 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001258602-24-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001258602-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001258602-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001258602-24-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001258602-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001258602-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001258602-24-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001258602-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001258602-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001258602-23-000026 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001258602-24-000024 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001258602-25-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001258602-26-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001258602-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001258602-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)