MeritValue

NEWMARK GROUP, INC.

NMRKdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NEWMARK GROUP, INC. earns about 12% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 29% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $4.6 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.5B1$2.3B2$2.07B3$2.27B3$2.77B3
Net income$978.1M4$112.5M4$62.4M4$85.5M4$126.2M5
Operating cash flow−$48.7M6$1.2B7−$266M8−$9.94M8$172M8
Capital expenditure$19.7M9$62.2M10$55.4M11$31.5M11$29.4M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$68.4M6$1.13B7−$321.3M8−$41.4M8$142.6M8
Total debt$1.09B12$1.1B13$1.09B14$1.34B15$1.34B15
Cash & equivalents$191.3M16$233M17$164.9M18$197.7M19$229.1M19
Diluted shares195.8M245.2M176.4M177.7M253.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$57.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.98
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.63
Debt you’d be carrying
$53.01

10 shares is a claim on $57.67 of net worth that earned you $4.98 and generated $5.63 of cash last year, against $53.01 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 44%FY22 4%FY23 2%FY24 4%FY25 6%

It earned an average 12% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+29% shares · 5y

Share count is up 29% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 23% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$4.6
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$112.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.39
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001690680-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009332 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013160 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-050004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013160 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001690680-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009332 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013160 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001690680-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009332 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013160 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001690680-23-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001690680-24-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009332 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013160 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001690680-23-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001690680-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009332 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013160 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)