Navios Maritime Holdings Inc.
NMPGYdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on fileNavios Maritime Holdings Inc. earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 78% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $94.77 and $195.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $28.4M1 | $17M1 | $215.9M2 | $223.5M2 | $255.4M2 |
| Net income | −$268.7M3 | −$192.1M4 | −$193M5 | $116.7M5 | $87.3M5 |
| Operating cash flow | $55.6M6 | $96.1M7 | $25.2M8 | $109.6M8 | $130.7M8 |
| Capital expenditure | $46.4M9 | $74.3M10 | $97M11 | $25M11 | $21.4M11 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $9.24M6 | $21.8M7 | −$71.8M8 | $84.7M8 | $109.4M8 |
| Total debt | $3.63B12 | $1.56B13 | $1.58B14 | $817.5M15 | $674.8M15 |
| Cash & equivalents | $137.9M16 | $78M17 | $94.9M18 | $53.4M19 | $78.5M19 |
| Diluted shares | 12.8M | 13.4M | 12.9M | 16.6M | 22.8M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $38.92 of net worth that earned you $38.23 and generated $47.88 of cash last year, against $295.45 of debt.
It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 78% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 81% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $94.77 and $195.01 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$84.7M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$84.7M
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $26.86 |
| Base | 20.0% | $94.77 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $94.77 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001193125-20-113684 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-080667 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001193125-21-140923 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-105593 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-080667 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001193125-21-140923 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-105593 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-080667 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001193125-19-122741 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-105593 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-080667 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
- 20-F · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001193125-20-113684 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001193125-21-140923 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-105593 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-080667 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 20-F · period ending 2018-12-31 · accession 0001193125-20-113684 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001193125-21-140923 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-105593 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-080667 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)