MeritValue

NMI Holdings, Inc.

NMIHdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NMI Holdings, Inc. earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $42.23 and $123.29 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$485.1M1$523.3M2$579M3$651M3$706.4M3
Net income$231.1M4$292.9M5$322.1M6$360.1M6$388.9M6
Operating cash flow$325.7M7$313.4M8$342.7M9$393.6M9$419.3M9
Capital expenditure$12.2M10$10.6M11$9.37M12$6.91M12$6.78M12
Free cash flow (derived)$313.5M7$302.8M8$333.3M9$386.7M9$412.5M9
Total debt$394.6M13$396.1M13———
Cash & equivalents$76.6M14$44.4M15$96.7M15$54.3M15$43.9M15
Diluted shares86.9M86.0M83.9M81.3M79.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$327.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$49.21
Free cash flow it threw off
$52.19
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $327.94 of net worth that earned you $49.21 and generated $52.19 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 16%FY23 19%FY24 17%FY25 15%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $42.23 and $123.29 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$123.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.5%
  • fcfBase$386.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$101.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.5%
  • fcfBase$386.7M
Earnings Power Value
$42.23
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$322.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$60.25
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $101.14
The three cases
Bear0.0%$70.46
Base8.5%$101.14
Bull13.5%$123.99

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001547903-24-000035 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001547903-25-000026 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001547903-26-000011 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001547903-24-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001547903-25-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001547903-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001547903-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001547903-25-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001547903-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001547903-24-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001547903-25-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001547903-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001547903-23-000036 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001547903-25-000026 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001547903-26-000011 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)