MeritValue

NETLIST INC

NLSTdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NETLIST INC earns about -123% on equity, but has diluted owners by 27% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$142.4M1$161.6M1$69.2M2$147.1M3$188.6M3
Net income$4.83M4−$33.4M4−$60.4M5−$53.9M6−$24.8M6
Operating cash flow$6.01M7−$15M7−$41.6M8−$34.6M9−$14.7M9
Capital expenditure$520,00010$467,00010—$71,00011$42,00011
Free cash flow (derived)$5.49M7−$15.5M7—−$34.7M9−$14.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$47.7M12$25M12$40.4M13$22.5M14$31.8M14
Diluted shares225.6M231.5M244.1M259.9M286.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$0.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.87
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.52
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$0.18 of net worth that earned you −$0.87 and generated −$0.52 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-123% avg · 5y
FY22 9%FY22 -123%FY23 -254%FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -123% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+27% shares · 5y

Share count is up 27% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001558370-24-001626 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001558370-25-004010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001104659-26-032152 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001558370-24-001626 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001558370-25-004010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001104659-26-032152 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001558370-24-001626 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001558370-25-004010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001104659-26-032152 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001558370-24-001626 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001104659-26-032152 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001558370-24-001626 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001558370-25-004010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001104659-26-032152 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)